Abstract

In the context of a rapidly warming climate, this study explores the divergence between rising outdoor temperatures and indoor thermal discomfort in passively designed buildings. Using a calibrated thermal simulation model, we evaluate the thermal resilience of passive and non-passive buildings under current and future climate scenarios (2030, 2050, and 2080). Simulations were conducted across all weather scenarios, comparing insulated (passive) and non-insulated (non-passive) buildings to assess their performance using Indoor Discomfort Degree (IDD), Ambient Warmness Degree (AWD), and Thermal Autonomy (TA). The results reveal that indoor discomfort does not increase at the same rate as outdoor temperatures, with insulated buildings exhibiting a significantly lower discomfort slope (339.72) compared to non-insulated ones (653.2). Insulation effectively reduces overheating (IOhD), with the reduction becoming more pronounced by 2080. Meanwhile, overcooling degree days (IOcD) remain relatively stable, suggesting that insulation does not lead to excessive cooling inside the building. This highlights a more balanced trade-off in passive design performance. While passive strategies remain beneficial, their effectiveness in mitigating discomfort persists even under extreme warming. However, additional adaptive strategies such as ventilation, shading, and thermal mass may be necessary to enhance long-term resilience. This study provides insights into how passive buildings diverge from external climate trends, offering valuable guidance for architects, engineers, and policymakers in designing climate-resilient buildings that minimize discomfort and make buildings resilient in a warming world.