Abstract

Climate-induced human mobility is profoundly shaped by policy decisions, especially in vulnerable coastal regions, where substantial government interventions are often essential to enable effective adaptation. Inadequate policy choices have the potential to impede migration and create trapped populations. Conversely, with increasing examples of voluntary immobility in areas threatened by climate stress and the possibility of planned relocations in these areas, it becomes imperative to examine how different policy stances impact mobility and immobility decisions. In this study, an agent-based model was developed, based on a survey of vulnerable coastal regions in India, to examine the role of public policy in influencing mobility responses in the case of coastal stretches of Thiruvananthapuram city in southwest India. Four scenarios based on policy stances commonly taken by governments worldwide were developed to assess the impact of different policy approaches. We looked at how the different scenarios create relative changes in migration, involuntary immobility and voluntary immobility rates. Our findings underscore the profound impact of government interventions on climate mobility responses and the essential role of government support in facilitating both in-situ adaptation and migration. Notably, scenarios with minimal government interventions resulted in the highest percentages of the population being trapped due to their inability to adapt effectively.