End-Use Energy Projections: Future Regional Disparity and Energy Poverty at the Household Level in Rural and Urban Areas of India

Satish Kumar Yawale, Tatsuya Hanaoka, Manmohan Kapshe, Rahul Pandey  | 2023


Regional disparity and energy poverty are major challenges for India on a macro-scale. In this study we explored regional disparity and energy poverty in India’s future by formulating a series of unique mathematical functions while analyzing historical time-series of per-capita energy consumption (PEC). The functions formulated have important implications on India’s approaches towards rapid urbanization, access to clean energy, and rural electrification. We also analyzed end-use energy consumption in low, mid and high-developing states and examined the impacts of the uncertainty of socio-economic changes. As per our estimates, energy consumption in urban areas, is likely to grow by 3.6 times from 2010 to 2070, whereas that in rural areas is likely to decrease by 0.6 times. Energy poverty among Indian states narrows by 2050, while energy consumption in the mid and high-developing states rises rapidly as urbanization and per-capita income increase. Even with this consumption growth, India’s average household PEC in 2070 may remain lower than the world average recorded in 2010. The provision of advanced energy resources and technologies is therefore likely to be an important policy challenge for India, especially in the rural areas of low-developing states, as the country pursues its target of reducing energy poverty and regional disparity.