{"id":16229,"date":"2021-02-02T14:13:58","date_gmt":"2021-02-02T08:43:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/iihs.co.in\/knowledge-gateway\/?p=16229"},"modified":"2022-09-09T10:24:56","modified_gmt":"2022-09-09T04:54:56","slug":"analyzing-the-spatiotemporal-uncertainty-in-urbanization-predictions","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/iihs.co.in\/knowledge-gateway\/analyzing-the-spatiotemporal-uncertainty-in-urbanization-predictions\/","title":{"rendered":"Analyzing the Spatiotemporal Uncertainty in Urbanization Predictions"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id='full_slider_1'  class='avia-fullwidth-slider main_color avia-shadow   avia-builder-el-0  el_before_av_layout_row  avia-builder-el-first   container_wrap sidebar_right'  ><div  class='avia-slideshow av-5bee6sl-56a5b953ffa254ba27d54e46c71315ce avia-slideshow-featured av_slideshow_full avia-fade-slider av-slideshow-ui av-control-hidden av-no-slider-navigation av-hide-nav-arrows av-slideshow-manual av-loop-once 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class='flex_cell_inner'><p>\n<style type=\"text\/css\" data-created_by=\"avia_inline_auto\" id=\"style-css-av-kknpqesm-fce6ed403c52eeb200357956526e87f6\">\n#top .av-special-heading.av-kknpqesm-fce6ed403c52eeb200357956526e87f6{\npadding-bottom:10px;\n}\nbody .av-special-heading.av-kknpqesm-fce6ed403c52eeb200357956526e87f6 .av-special-heading-tag .heading-char{\nfont-size:25px;\n}\n.av-special-heading.av-kknpqesm-fce6ed403c52eeb200357956526e87f6 .av-subheading{\nfont-size:15px;\n}\n<\/style>\n<div  class='av-special-heading av-kknpqesm-fce6ed403c52eeb200357956526e87f6 av-special-heading-h3  avia-builder-el-5  el_before_av_textblock  avia-builder-el-first '><h3 class='av-special-heading-tag '  itemprop=\"headline\"  >Analyzing the Spatiotemporal Uncertainty in Urbanization Predictions<\/h3><div class=\"special-heading-border\"><div class=\"special-heading-inner-border\"><\/div><\/div><\/div><br \/>\n<section  class='av_textblock_section av-kknr8n7q-da6340b9f5a8a2412f3cac0bb01008e1 '   itemscope=\"itemscope\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/BlogPosting\" itemprop=\"blogPost\" ><div class='avia_textblock'  itemprop=\"text\" ><p><span style=\"font-size: 13px; text-transform: none; color: #8a0000;\"><em>Jairo Alejandro G\u00f3mez, ChengHe Guan, Pratyush Tripathy, Juan Carlos Duque, Santiago Passos, Michael Keith, Jialin Liu\u00a0<\/em>| 2021<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div><\/section><br \/>\n<section  class='av_textblock_section av-kknr9j1h-f1418a2eb8b4d3f5510e9af6fc00c2f6 '   itemscope=\"itemscope\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/BlogPosting\" itemprop=\"blogPost\" ><div class='avia_textblock'  itemprop=\"text\" ><p class=\"p2\">Abstract<\/p>\n<p class=\"p3\">With the availability of computational resources, geographical information systems, and remote sensing data, urban growth modeling has become a viable tool for predicting urbanization of cities and towns, regions, and nations around the world. This information allows policy makers, urban planners, environmental and civil organizations to make investments, design infrastructure, extend public utility networks, plan housing solutions, and mitigate adverse environmental impacts. Despite its importance, urban growth models often discard the spatiotemporal uncertainties in their prediction estimates. In this paper, we analyzed the uncertainty in the urban land predictions by comparing the outcomes of two different growth models, one based on a widely applied cellular automata model known as the SLEUTH CA and the other one based on a previously published machine learning framework. We selected these two models because they are complementary, the first is based on human knowledge and pre-defined and understandable policies while the second is more data-driven and might be less influenced by any a priori knowledge or bias. To test our methodology, we chose the cities of Jiaxing and Lishui in China because they are representative of new town planning policies and have different characteristics in terms of land extension, geographical conditions, growth rates, and economic drivers. We focused on the spatiotemporal uncertainty, understood as the inherent doubt in the predictions of where and when will a piece of land become urban, using the concepts of certainty area in space and certainty area in time. The proposed analyses in this paper aim to contribute to better urban planning exercises, and they can be extended to other cities worldwide.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/section><br \/>\n<div  class='avia-button-wrap av-kknr9zdy-786902a755fb27f7eade96567b336ff6-wrap avia-button-left  avia-builder-el-8  el_after_av_textblock  el_before_av_hr '><a href='https:\/\/www.mdpi.com\/2072-4292\/13\/3\/512'  class='avia-button av-kknr9zdy-786902a755fb27f7eade96567b336ff6 av-link-btn avia-icon_select-yes-left-icon avia-size-medium avia-position-left avia-color-theme-color'  target=\"_blank\"  rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"  aria-label=\"Access Paper\"><span class='avia_button_icon avia_button_icon_left avia-iconfont avia-font-entypo-fontello' data-av_icon='\ue82d' data-av_iconfont='entypo-fontello' ><\/span><span class='avia_iconbox_title' >Access Paper<\/span><\/a><\/div><br \/>\n\n<style type=\"text\/css\" data-created_by=\"avia_inline_auto\" id=\"style-css-av-2igvv0l-65457b7eeda5f657adf07267e1dd694c\">\n#top 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11.478260869565pt;\" aria-label=\"Adaptation (4 items)\">Adaptation<\/a>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/iihs.co.in\/knowledge-gateway\/tag\/area-studies\/\" class=\"tag-cloud-link tag-link-214 tag-link-position-3\" style=\"font-size: 8pt;\" aria-label=\"Area Studies (1 item)\">Area Studies<\/a>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/iihs.co.in\/knowledge-gateway\/tag\/ayurveda\/\" class=\"tag-cloud-link tag-link-213 tag-link-position-4\" style=\"font-size: 8pt;\" aria-label=\"Ayurveda (1 item)\">Ayurveda<\/a>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/iihs.co.in\/knowledge-gateway\/tag\/built-environment\/\" class=\"tag-cloud-link tag-link-215 tag-link-position-5\" style=\"font-size: 8pt;\" aria-label=\"Built Environment (1 item)\">Built Environment<\/a>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/iihs.co.in\/knowledge-gateway\/tag\/capacity-building\/\" class=\"tag-cloud-link tag-link-233 tag-link-position-6\" style=\"font-size: 9.5652173913043pt;\" aria-label=\"Capacity Building (2 items)\">Capacity Building<\/a>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/iihs.co.in\/knowledge-gateway\/tag\/capacity-development\/\" class=\"tag-cloud-link tag-link-141 tag-link-position-7\" style=\"font-size: 9.5652173913043pt;\" aria-label=\"Capacity Development (2 items)\">Capacity Development<\/a>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/iihs.co.in\/knowledge-gateway\/tag\/chronic-disease\/\" class=\"tag-cloud-link tag-link-212 tag-link-position-8\" style=\"font-size: 8pt;\" aria-label=\"Chronic disease (1 item)\">Chronic disease<\/a>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/iihs.co.in\/knowledge-gateway\/tag\/climate-change\/\" class=\"tag-cloud-link tag-link-68 tag-link-position-9\" style=\"font-size: 14.782608695652pt;\" aria-label=\"Climate Change (11 items)\">Climate Change<\/a>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/iihs.co.in\/knowledge-gateway\/tag\/culture\/\" class=\"tag-cloud-link tag-link-107 tag-link-position-10\" style=\"font-size: 14.434782608696pt;\" aria-label=\"Culture (10 items)\">Culture<\/a>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/iihs.co.in\/knowledge-gateway\/tag\/cultures-of-medicine\/\" class=\"tag-cloud-link tag-link-211 tag-link-position-11\" style=\"font-size: 8pt;\" aria-label=\"Cultures of medicine (1 item)\">Cultures of medicine<\/a>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/iihs.co.in\/knowledge-gateway\/tag\/data-and-metrics\/\" class=\"tag-cloud-link tag-link-103 tag-link-position-12\" style=\"font-size: 18.347826086957pt;\" aria-label=\"Data and Metrics (30 items)\">Data and Metrics<\/a>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/iihs.co.in\/knowledge-gateway\/tag\/design\/\" class=\"tag-cloud-link tag-link-145 tag-link-position-13\" style=\"font-size: 11.478260869565pt;\" aria-label=\"Design (4 items)\">Design<\/a>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/iihs.co.in\/knowledge-gateway\/tag\/economic-development\/\" class=\"tag-cloud-link tag-link-99 tag-link-position-14\" style=\"font-size: 18.95652173913pt;\" aria-label=\"Economic Development (35 items)\">Economic Development<\/a>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/iihs.co.in\/knowledge-gateway\/tag\/ecosystem\/\" class=\"tag-cloud-link tag-link-152 tag-link-position-15\" style=\"font-size: 15.826086956522pt;\" aria-label=\"Ecosystem (15 items)\">Ecosystem<\/a>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/iihs.co.in\/knowledge-gateway\/tag\/energy\/\" class=\"tag-cloud-link tag-link-160 tag-link-position-16\" style=\"font-size: 12.173913043478pt;\" aria-label=\"Energy (5 items)\">Energy<\/a>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/iihs.co.in\/knowledge-gateway\/tag\/environment-and-climate\/\" class=\"tag-cloud-link tag-link-104 tag-link-position-17\" style=\"font-size: 22pt;\" aria-label=\"Environment and Climate (80 items)\">Environment and Climate<\/a>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/iihs.co.in\/knowledge-gateway\/tag\/equity\/\" class=\"tag-cloud-link tag-link-94 tag-link-position-18\" style=\"font-size: 10.608695652174pt;\" aria-label=\"Equity (3 items)\">Equity<\/a>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/iihs.co.in\/knowledge-gateway\/tag\/gender\/\" class=\"tag-cloud-link tag-link-110 tag-link-position-19\" style=\"font-size: 12.173913043478pt;\" aria-label=\"Gender (5 items)\">Gender<\/a>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/iihs.co.in\/knowledge-gateway\/tag\/governance\/\" class=\"tag-cloud-link tag-link-102 tag-link-position-20\" style=\"font-size: 18pt;\" aria-label=\"Governance (27 items)\">Governance<\/a>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/iihs.co.in\/knowledge-gateway\/tag\/health\/\" class=\"tag-cloud-link tag-link-151 tag-link-position-21\" style=\"font-size: 10.608695652174pt;\" aria-label=\"Health (3 items)\">Health<\/a>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/iihs.co.in\/knowledge-gateway\/tag\/housing\/\" class=\"tag-cloud-link tag-link-13 tag-link-position-22\" style=\"font-size: 18pt;\" aria-label=\"Housing (27 items)\">Housing<\/a>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/iihs.co.in\/knowledge-gateway\/tag\/human-development\/\" class=\"tag-cloud-link tag-link-100 tag-link-position-23\" style=\"font-size: 15.652173913043pt;\" aria-label=\"Human Development (14 items)\">Human Development<\/a>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/iihs.co.in\/knowledge-gateway\/tag\/illness-narratives\/\" class=\"tag-cloud-link tag-link-210 tag-link-position-24\" style=\"font-size: 8pt;\" aria-label=\"Illness narratives (1 item)\">Illness narratives<\/a>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/iihs.co.in\/knowledge-gateway\/tag\/industrial-policy\/\" class=\"tag-cloud-link tag-link-80 tag-link-position-25\" style=\"font-size: 9.5652173913043pt;\" aria-label=\"Industrial Policy (2 items)\">Industrial Policy<\/a>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/iihs.co.in\/knowledge-gateway\/tag\/instructional-design\/\" class=\"tag-cloud-link tag-link-150 tag-link-position-26\" style=\"font-size: 9.5652173913043pt;\" aria-label=\"Instructional Design (2 items)\">Instructional Design<\/a>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/iihs.co.in\/knowledge-gateway\/tag\/ipcc\/\" class=\"tag-cloud-link tag-link-126 tag-link-position-27\" style=\"font-size: 9.5652173913043pt;\" aria-label=\"IPCC (2 items)\">IPCC<\/a>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/iihs.co.in\/knowledge-gateway\/tag\/knowledge\/\" class=\"tag-cloud-link tag-link-143 tag-link-position-28\" style=\"font-size: 10.608695652174pt;\" aria-label=\"Knowledge (3 items)\">Knowledge<\/a>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/iihs.co.in\/knowledge-gateway\/tag\/land\/\" class=\"tag-cloud-link tag-link-108 tag-link-position-29\" style=\"font-size: 19.652173913043pt;\" aria-label=\"Land (43 items)\">Land<\/a>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/iihs.co.in\/knowledge-gateway\/tag\/medical-diversity\/\" class=\"tag-cloud-link tag-link-208 tag-link-position-30\" style=\"font-size: 8pt;\" aria-label=\"Medical diversity (1 item)\">Medical diversity<\/a>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/iihs.co.in\/knowledge-gateway\/tag\/migration\/\" class=\"tag-cloud-link tag-link-234 tag-link-position-31\" style=\"font-size: 9.5652173913043pt;\" aria-label=\"migration (2 items)\">migration<\/a>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/iihs.co.in\/knowledge-gateway\/tag\/non-economic-loss\/\" class=\"tag-cloud-link tag-link-194 tag-link-position-32\" style=\"font-size: 8pt;\" aria-label=\"Non-Economic Loss (1 item)\">Non-Economic Loss<\/a>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/iihs.co.in\/knowledge-gateway\/tag\/planning\/\" class=\"tag-cloud-link tag-link-106 tag-link-position-33\" style=\"font-size: 17.565217391304pt;\" aria-label=\"Planning (24 items)\">Planning<\/a>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/iihs.co.in\/knowledge-gateway\/tag\/pluralism\/\" class=\"tag-cloud-link tag-link-209 tag-link-position-34\" style=\"font-size: 8pt;\" aria-label=\"Pluralism (1 item)\">Pluralism<\/a>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/iihs.co.in\/knowledge-gateway\/tag\/policies\/\" class=\"tag-cloud-link tag-link-146 tag-link-position-35\" style=\"font-size: 10.608695652174pt;\" aria-label=\"Policies (3 items)\">Policies<\/a>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/iihs.co.in\/knowledge-gateway\/tag\/poverty-and-inequality\/\" class=\"tag-cloud-link tag-link-101 tag-link-position-36\" style=\"font-size: 17.391304347826pt;\" aria-label=\"Poverty and Inequality (23 items)\">Poverty and Inequality<\/a>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/iihs.co.in\/knowledge-gateway\/tag\/risk\/\" class=\"tag-cloud-link tag-link-97 tag-link-position-37\" style=\"font-size: 16.521739130435pt;\" aria-label=\"Risk (18 items)\">Risk<\/a>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/iihs.co.in\/knowledge-gateway\/tag\/sanitation\/\" class=\"tag-cloud-link tag-link-67 tag-link-position-38\" style=\"font-size: 9.5652173913043pt;\" aria-label=\"Sanitation (2 items)\">Sanitation<\/a>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/iihs.co.in\/knowledge-gateway\/tag\/scholarly-publishing\/\" class=\"tag-cloud-link tag-link-130 tag-link-position-39\" style=\"font-size: 9.5652173913043pt;\" aria-label=\"Scholarly Publishing (2 items)\">Scholarly Publishing<\/a>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/iihs.co.in\/knowledge-gateway\/tag\/science-gaps\/\" class=\"tag-cloud-link tag-link-193 tag-link-position-40\" style=\"font-size: 8pt;\" aria-label=\"Science Gaps (1 item)\">Science Gaps<\/a>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/iihs.co.in\/knowledge-gateway\/tag\/sustainability\/\" class=\"tag-cloud-link tag-link-93 tag-link-position-41\" style=\"font-size: 12.782608695652pt;\" aria-label=\"Sustainability (6 items)\">Sustainability<\/a>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/iihs.co.in\/knowledge-gateway\/tag\/training-manual\/\" class=\"tag-cloud-link tag-link-242 tag-link-position-42\" style=\"font-size: 10.608695652174pt;\" aria-label=\"Training manual (3 items)\">Training manual<\/a>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/iihs.co.in\/knowledge-gateway\/tag\/transport\/\" class=\"tag-cloud-link tag-link-95 tag-link-position-43\" style=\"font-size: 12.173913043478pt;\" aria-label=\"Transport (5 items)\">Transport<\/a>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/iihs.co.in\/knowledge-gateway\/tag\/urbanisation\/\" class=\"tag-cloud-link tag-link-88 tag-link-position-44\" style=\"font-size: 12.782608695652pt;\" aria-label=\"Urbanisation (6 items)\">Urbanisation<\/a>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/iihs.co.in\/knowledge-gateway\/tag\/water-and-sanitation\/\" class=\"tag-cloud-link tag-link-96 tag-link-position-45\" style=\"font-size: 18.086956521739pt;\" aria-label=\"Water and Sanitation (28 items)\">Water and Sanitation<\/a><\/div>\n<\/div><\/div><\/p>\n<\/div><\/div><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p><em>Jairo Alejandro G\u00f3mez, ChengHe Guan, Pratyush Tripathy, Juan Carlos Duque, Santiago Passos, Michael Keith, Jialin Liu<\/em><\/p>\n<hr\/>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":11835,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-16229","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-paper"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/iihs.co.in\/knowledge-gateway\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16229","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/iihs.co.in\/knowledge-gateway\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/iihs.co.in\/knowledge-gateway\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/iihs.co.in\/knowledge-gateway\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/6"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/iihs.co.in\/knowledge-gateway\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=16229"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/iihs.co.in\/knowledge-gateway\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16229\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/iihs.co.in\/knowledge-gateway\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/11835"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/iihs.co.in\/knowledge-gateway\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=16229"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/iihs.co.in\/knowledge-gateway\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=16229"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/iihs.co.in\/knowledge-gateway\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=16229"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}